NYMEX crude oil prices gain in early Asia on global outlook – Sean Seshadri

Crude oil prices rose in early Asia trade on Friday as political and economic uncertainty kept the commodity well bid.On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude oil for delivery in November traded at $92.59 a barrel, up 0.06%, after hitting an overnight session low of $92.11 a barrel and a high of $93.54 a barrel.

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Brent oil rose 0.1% to $97 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe Thursday.Overnight, crude prices traded near session lows despite relatively solid U.S. data, as concerns the global economy is awash in oil watered down demand for the commodity.

News Russia may consider a proposal allowing Moscow to seize foreign assets spooked investors across the globe.A draft law, a response to Western sanctions slapped on the country for its alleged meddling in the Ukraine conflict, was sent to the Russian parliament Wednesday.N

Oil prices rose a day earlier after official data revealed that U.S. crude stockpiles plunged by 4.3 million barrels last week, confounding expectations for a build of 386,000 barrels, though by Thursday, profit taking sent crude back into negative territory.

Separately, official data showed that U.S. durable goods orders dropped by 18.2% in August, after an increase of 22.5% in July, whose figure was revised down from a previously estimated gain of 22.6%. Analysts had expected durable goods orders to decline by 18.0% last month.

Core durable goods orders, which are stripped of volatile transportation items, rose 0.7% last month, in line with expectations, after falling 0.5% in July, whose figure was revised from a previously estimated 0.7% drop.

Elsewhere, hawkish comments out of the Federal Reserve pushed oil prices lower by strengthening the dollar. A stronger greenback makes oil less attractive on dollar-denominated exchanges, especially in the eyes of investors holding other currencies.


NYMEX crude recovers slightly in Asia as supply focus intensifies – Sean Seshadri

Crude oil prices rebounded slightly in Asia on Friday even as storage woes for bulging crude supplies hang over the market as production outpaces demand for now.On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude oil for delivery in November traded at $92.05 a barrel, up 0.08%, after hitting an overnight session low of $91.84 a barrel and a high of $93.59 a barrel.

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Brent oil fell 1.3% to $97.70 on ICE Futures Europe Thursday. Overnight, oil prices moved lower in U.S. trading on expectations for the Federal Reserve to close stimulus programs next month and raise interest rates next year, which would open the door to a stronger dollar.

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday said that it will likely close its monthly bond-buying program in October and suggested it will raise interest rates in 2015.While some time will pass when the bond-buying program closes and rates begin to rise, investors concluded that borrowing costs are set to climb in 2015 regardless, which should open the door to a gradual strengthening trend for the dollar.

Wednesday’s bearish U.S. storage data added to the selloff.The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report on Wednesday that U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 3.7 million barrels in the week ended Sept. 12, confounding expectations for a decline of 1.7 million barrels, which stoked fears of a supply glut.Total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 362.3 million barrels as of last week.


Gold trades near 8-month low ahead of Fed policy decision – Sean Seshadri

Gold futures fell to an eight-month low on Monday, amid speculation the Federal Reserve may signal an early interest rate increase at this week’s policy meeting.On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for December delivery fell to a daily low of $1,226.40 a troy ounce, a level not seen since January 9.

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Futures bounced back to last trade at $1,235.60 during European morning hours, up $4.10, or 0.33%.Gold was likely to find support at $1,218.60, the low from January 8 and resistance at $1,251.00, the high from September 11.

Also on the Comex, silver for December delivery inched up 3.2 cents, or 0.17%, to trade at $18.63 a troy ounce.In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on the outcome of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve policy meeting. Fed Chair Janet Yellen was to hold a press conference following the meeting.

The dollar remained well bid amid speculation Fed officials could adopt more hawkish language, possibly by omitting mention of its commitment to keep rates low for a “considerable time”.The central bank was expected to cut its asset purchase program by another $10 billion, which would keep it on track for winding up the program in October, and to start raising interest rates sometime in mid-2015.

Gold costs money to store and struggles to compete yield-bearing assets when interest rates are on the rise.Elsewhere in metals trading, copper for December delivery lost 2.4 cents, or 0.76, to trade at $3.083 a pound after data showed that China’s factory output grew at the weakest pace in nearly six years in August, adding to concerns over a slowdown in the world’s second largest economy.

Data released on Saturday showed that industrial production in China rose at an annualized rate of 6.9% in August, missing estimates for a gain of 8.8% and slowing from an increase of 9.0% a month earlier.


Dollar General to go hostile with $9.1 billion Family Dollar bid: sources – Sean Seshadri

U.S. retailer Dollar General Corp (N:DG) is preparing to go hostile as soon as this week in its bid to buy rival Family Dollar Stores (N:FDO), taking its $9.1 billion offer directly to shareholders after being spurned twice by its smaller rival, people familiar with the matter said on Tuesday.

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Dollar General could launch a tender offer for Family Dollar as soon as Wednesday, these people said, asking not to be named because the matter is not public.Family Dollar, which already has a deal to sell to Dollar Tree Inc (O:DLTR) for $8.5 billion, has rejected Dollar General’s unsolicited approaches citing antitrust risks.

Representatives for Dollar General and Family Dollar both declined to comment.Dollar General’s expected hostile move could lead to a protracted takeover battle involving the nation’s three largest U.S. dollar-store operators, at a time when these retailers are facing increasing competition from retailers like Wal-Mart and Target Corp (N:TGT).

In its most recent offer made last week, Dollar General had added a $500 million break-up fee and increased the number of stores it is willing to sell to get antitrust approval to 1,500 from 700.Dollar General believes these new terms eliminated the antitrust risk for Family Dollar, people familiar with the matter said. But the rival rejected the sweetened bid, saying it still did not give the company sufficient protection.

Family Dollar wants Dollar General to assume the entire risk of a deal getting shot down by U.S. regulators through a so-called “hell or high water” clause before agreeing to negotiate. Such a clause will commit the company to doing whatever it takes to complete the deal, such as carrying out any divestiture that antitrust regulators ask for.

But Dollar General is not willing to offer such an assurance, partly because doing so could leave the retailer at the mercy of the antitrust regulators, who could demand huge divestitures, according to people familiar with the matter.

Dollar General also believes it has already offered far more divestitures than is necessary to secure regulatory approval, the people said. While it is willing to sell off up to 1,500 stores if required by the U.S. Federal Trade Commission, it still believes that the FTC will ask for far fewer to be divested, around 700, these people added.

Some shareholders have questioned if Dollar General can find buyers for the stores that regulators would require them to sell. But the people familiar with the matter said there is a long list of potential buyers for such assets, including a handful of small box retailers such as Fred’s, Happy Dollar and Five Below, as well as private equity firms. These buyers could be interested in dividing up the assets, the people said.


U.S. oil futures retreat ahead of weekly supply report – Sean Seshadri

West Texas Intermediate oil futures were lower on Thursday, as investors awaited the release of weekly supply data out of the U.S. later in the session to gauge the strength of oil demand from the world’s largest consumer.

The report comes out one day later than usual because of the U.S. Labor Day holiday.On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil for delivery in October declined 0.89%, or 85 cents, to trade at $94.69 a barrel during European morning hours.

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Prices held in a narrow range between $94.66 and $95.28 a barrel. Futures were likely to find support at $93.06 a barrel, the low from September 3 and resistance at $95.91 a barrel, the high from September 2.

Thursday’s government report was expected to show that U.S. crude oil stockpiles fell by 1.2 million barrels last week, while gasoline stockpiles were forecast to decrease by 1.4 million barrels.After markets closed Wednesday, the American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, said that U.S. crude inventories fell by 545,000 barrels in the week ended August 29, compared to expectations for a decline of 1.0 million barrels.

The report also showed that gasoline stockpiles increased by 362,000 barrels, while distillate stocks rose by 385,000 barrels.On Wednesday, U.S. oil prices surged 2.86%, or $2.66, to end at $95.54 a barrel following reports that Ukraine and Russia had reached a ceasefire agreement in eastern Ukraine.

Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil for October delivery slumped 0.7%, or 72 cents, to trade at $102.05 a barrel. London-traded Brent prices rallied 2.42%, or $2.43, on Wednesday to settle at $102.77.

Focus turns to the European Central Bank’s policy meeting later in the day, amid speculation the central bank could unveil fresh stimulus measures to fight inflation and boost growth.Market players are hoping the meeting will shed further light on the bank’s plans to start asset purchases, a move that would work in favor of the dollar’s strength.

Investors also looked ahead to Friday’s U.S. employment report for August for further indications on the strength of the recovery in the labor market, a key factor in deciding the future path of monetary policy.
While the U.S. economy continues to gain steam, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen has expressed concern over slackness persistent in the labor market.

On Thursday, the U.S. is to release trade-balance data, the ADP report on private-sector job creation and the weekly report on initial jobless claims. Also on Thursday, the ISM is to publish a report on U.S. service sector activity.


Dollar hits 7-month highs vs. yen, euro at 1-year lows – Sean Seshadri

The dollar rose to seven month highs against the yen on Tuesday, while the euro continued to wallow at one year lows amid mounting expectations that the European Central Bank will announce fresh easing measures.

EUR/USD touched lows of 1.3115, the weakest level since September 6 2013 and was last at 1.3127.The euro has come under heavy selling pressure in recent sessions amid mounting expectations that the ECB will implement fresh measures as a way to shore up long term inflation expectations after data showed that the annual rate of euro zone inflation slowed to a five year low in August.

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Concerns that sanctions against Russia would act as a drag on growth in the euro zone also continued to pressure the single currency lower.The dollar advanced to seven month highs against the yen, with USD/JPY climbing 0.46% to 104.82.

The dollar was boosted by weakness in the euro and by gains in Asian equities markets overnight, which curbed investor demand for the safe haven yen.Elsewhere, GBP/USD was down 0.22% to 1.6569 ahead of U.K. construction sector data due out later in the session.

USD/CHF touched 10-month highs of 0.9207 and was last trading at 0.9196, unchanged for the day.Earlier Tuesday, official data showed that Switzerland’s economy stagnated in the second quarter, with growth dragged down by falling exports and lower construction spending.

On a year-over-year basis, the Swiss economy grew 0.6%, missing expectations of 1.7% and slowing from 2.1% in the previous quarter.AUD/USD was down 0.32% to a one week low of 0.9288 after the Reserve Bank left rates unchanged earlier Tuesday and said that the overvalued Australian dollar is weighing on efforts to support growth.Elsewhere, NZD/USD was down 0.31% to 0.8348, while USD/CAD added 0.23% to trade at 1.0894.


Gold prices higher in Asia after China HSBC PMI shows steady demand – Sean Seshadri

Gold prices rose in Asia on Monday after manufacturing data pointed to steady demand and on possible new sanctions on Russia and with markets in the U.S. and Canada closed for the Labor Day holiday.Gold for December delivery traded at $1,287.70 a troy ounce, up 0.02%, after ending last week at $1,288.20 a troy ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

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Gold futures rose 0.62% last week, but ended the month down 0.51%.In China, the August CFLP manufacturing PMI came in at 51.1, just a nick below the 51.2 exepected.The HSBC final manufacturing PMI came in at 50.2, just below the 50.3 expected.

U.S. officials are working closely with the European Union to keep their Russia sanctions programs aligned in timing and severity.On Saturday, European Union leaders agreed to draw up options within a week for possible new sanctions against Russia, with action to follow quickly unless Moscow takes clear steps to scale back its intervention in Ukraine. Reports have emerged that hundreds of Russian soldiers have entered Ukraine.

European Council President Herman Van Rompuy said the bloc wouldn’t set out specific criteria for triggering fresh sanctions but said there was “determination” to ensure Russia paid an appropriate price for heightening tensions.

“I can assure you that everyone is fully aware that we have to act quickly given the escalation on the ground,” he said at the end of a summit of European leaders.In China, we get the August CFLP manufacturing PMI at 0900 (0100 GMT) with 51.2 exepected.

This would be followed by the HSBC final manufacturing PMI at 0945 (0145 GMT) with 50.3 expected, unchanged from the previous month final.In the week ahead, trading volumes are likely to remain light on Monday, with U.S. markets closed for the Labor Day holiday. Investors will be focusing on Thursday’s outcome of the ECB’s monthly monetary policy meeting, as well as Friday’s closely watched U.S. nonfarm payrolls report.

Monetary policy announcements by central banks in Australia, Japan, Canada and the U.K. will also be awaited.Last week, gold prices hit $1,297.60 an ounce, their highest level since Aug. 20 on Thursday after Ukraine’s president said Russian troops had entered the conflict in eastern Ukraine to support pro-Russian separatists there.

However, gold retreated from the day’s highs after data showed that U.S. gross domestic product expanded at an annual rate of 4.2% in the second quarter, up from a preliminary estimate of 4% and rebounding from a first quarter contraction.


Gold futures inch higher on weaker dollar – Sean Seshadri

Gold futures edged higher on Wednesday, as a weaker U.S. dollar boosted the appeal of the precious metal.On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold for December delivery rose 0.13%, or $1.70, to trade at $1,286.90 a troy ounce during European morning hours.

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Prices traded in a range between $1,281.10 and $1,287.40 an ounce. A day earlier, gold tacked on 0.49%, or $6.30, to settle at $1,285.20.Futures hit a nine-week low of $1,273.40 on August 21 as market players priced in a greater risk of a sooner-than-expected hike in U.S. interest rates.

Prices were likely to find support at $1,273.40, the low from August 21 and resistance at $1,299.30, the high from August 20.The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, fell 0.18% to hit 82.54, as investors locked in gains from a recent rally.

Dollar weakness usually benefits gold, as it boosts the metal’s appeal as an alternative asset and makes dollar-priced commodities cheaper for holders of other currencies.The greenback rallied to an 11-month high against the euro after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi told the Jackson Hole gathering last week that the central bank is ready to take more unconventional action if needed to stimulate a sluggish euro zone economy.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 closed above the key 2000-level for the first time ever on Tuesday after upbeat data boosted optimism over the health of the U.S. economy.The Conference Board said its index of U.S. consumer confidence rose to a seven-year high of 92.4 this month from a reading of 90.3 in July. Analysts expected the index to decline to 89.0 in August.

The robust consumer confidence report came after data from the U.S. Commerce Department showed that total durable goods orders, which include transportation items, surged by 22.6% last month, blowing past expectations for an increase of 7.5%.

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said at Jackson Hole that the U.S. economy is recovering and added the labor market is improving as well.Also on the Comex, silver for December delivery advanced 0.2%, or 3.9 cents, to trade at $19.49 a troy ounce.


Forex – Dollar little changed after new home sales disappoint – Sean Seshadri

The dollar was little changed against the other major currencies on Monday, despite the release of disapointing U.S. new home sales data as Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s upbeat comments on Friday still supported demand for the greenback.

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In a report, the U.S. Commerce Department said new home sales dropped by 2.4% to 412,000 units last month, compared to expectations for an increase of 5.7% to 430,000.New home sales in June were revised up to 422,000 units from a previously reported 406,000 units.

The dollar remained supported after Fed Chair Janet Yellen said on Friday that the U.S. economy is recovering and added the labor market is improving as well.Ms. Yellen was speaking at the Fed’s annual meeting of top central bankers and economists in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

EUR/USD slid 0.28% to 1.3201, after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi told the Jackson Hole gathering that the central bank is ready to take more unconventional action if needed to stimulate a sluggish euro zone economy.

Earlier Monday, the German research institute Ifo said its Business Climate Index fell to a more than one-year low of 106.3 this month, below forecasts for 107.0 and down from a reading of 108.0 in July.The weak data dampened optimism over the health of the euro zone’s largest economy.

The pound held steady, near five-month lows with GBP/USD at 1.6584.The dollar was little changed against the yen and the Swiss franc, with USD/JPY at 103.96 and with USD/CHF at 0.9144.Meanwhile, AUD/USD edged down 0.19% to 0.9298 and NZD/USD retreated 0.59% to 0.8352, while USD/CAD rose 0.23% to 1.0970.


Understanding drawdown

Drawdown means how much the stock, future, or underlying instrument has fallen before one is profitable. In order for one to trade more than 100 shares or 1 contract of a futures contract one needs to understand how to recognize specific trading setups which occur on a daily a weekly basis.

One can use these ideas to trader longer term over months or years but the risk greatly increases because of uncertain events that can occur which can make the initial analysis fail. In order to be unemotional in trading a trader needs to have a fixed stop loss which means a set amount he or she is willing to risk per trade whether it be 1 dollar or a hundred dollars.